‘I think we’ve got a second leg down and that’s very much reminiscent of what happened in the 1930s where people appreciate the depth of this recession and the disruption and how long it’s going to take to recover.’
That’s A. Gary Shilling, longtime economist and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., again delivering a gloomy take on what’s next in a recent CNBC interview.
“Stocks are [behaving] very much like that rebound in 1929 where there is absolute conviction that the virus will be under control and that massive monetary and fiscal stimuli will reinvigorate the economy,” he said, adding that the market could drop as much as 40% over the next year.
So where should investors park their cash in this climate?
“I think we’re going to see downward pressure on prices and that works to the advantage of Treasury bonds, which have been my favorite since 1981,” he said.
Shilling laid out his prediction in more detail earlier this year, explaining in a Bloomberg News op-ed that while many economists are looking for a V-shaped, or quick, rebound to deliver a sharp recovery in the second half of the year, he remains much more skeptical.
“This pandemic is likely to be the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II with equally long-lasting consequences,” Shilling wrote, citing the stark unemployment numbers at the time. “Many will no doubt restrain spending in future years to rebuild savings, especially since the crisis caught them at a time of high debts and short financial reserves.”
A woman wearing a dress made of cash, Germany, 1923.
THESE are the shocking images that reveal the full horror of hyperinflation in post Great War Germany ñ when money was literally worthless. In 1923, Germany was hit by one of the worst cases of hyperinflation in history, with 4.2 trillions marks worth just one American dollar. This out-of-control inflation began somewhat mildly during World War I, as the German government printed unbacked currency and borrowed money to finance military expenditures. The strategy was to pay off the debts by seizing resource-rich territories and imposing reparations on the vanquished Allies. But when Germany lost the war and ended up with massive debts, including huge reparations to be paid to the Allies under the Treaty of Versailles. The country found themselves in economic crisis and increasingly unable to afford the hefty reparation payments.
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