UBS backs bullion following decline as pandemic roils markets
Traditional haven has been hurt by forced sales, dollar rally
Now’s the Time
Now’s the time to buy gold, according to one of the world’s leading wealth managers, which flagged bullion’s prospects after the haven lost out to the dollar in recent weeks as the pandemic roils markets.
“When I think about what would I buy in the right here and now, I would be buying gold,” Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, told Bloomberg TV. Prices would appreciate over three to six months, according to Gordon.
Bullion is set for back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since September after the dollar hit a record, although its drop was pared Friday as investors took stock of the outlook for the global economy, the spread of the disease, and looser monetary policy. With deep losses in risk assets this month, some investors have been forced to sell gold to raise cash. A similar pattern — losses at times of extreme market stress — was seen in bullion at the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008, before it went on to peak in 2011.
Gold as an Insurance
Gold “provided what it should during times of crisis, a form of insurance to cash in when liquidity was required,” Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott Inc., said in a note, referring to recent moves. It’s one of the first assets to be cashed in when leverage is reduced, and long-term investors not subject to margin pressures will be rewarded owning gold at this time, he said.
Gold traded 2.3% higher at $1,505.21 an ounce at 9:45 a.m. in London as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell after an eight-day rally. The metal is down 1.6% this week after an 8.6% fall last week, the most since 1983. Earlier this month, it topped $1,700 to hit the highest level since 2012.
Given additional quantitative easing from central banks “you should see a weaker dollar over the next 12 months,” Gordon said. “On the back of that, you’ll see real rates go back into negative territory,” he said, adding: “That will be a potent power for gold.”
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